Why Microsoft Shouldn’t Release Any Future Bethesda Games on PlayStation

I couldn’t quite believe my eyes when I read the news that Microsoft had acquired ZeniMax Media, parent company of Bethesda Softworks. In an acquisition worth a staggering $7.5 billion in cash, it’s the most seismic deal in the history of the gaming industry. It sees a wealth of talent join Microsoft Studios with Bethesda Softworks, Bethesda Game Studios, id Software, ZeniMax Online Studios, Arkane, MachineGames, Tango Gameworks, Alpha Dog, and Roundhouse Studios all join the Xbox family.

As well as the marvellously talented studios, the deal also sees Microsoft acquire well-renowned IP such as The Elder Scrolls, Fallout, Wolfenstein, DOOM, Dishonored, Prey, Quake, Starfield and many more. It really cannot be understated just how much of a megaton this deal really is. We’re talking about some of the most famous IP in gaming history. $7.5 billion is an eye-watering amount but when you consider The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim reportedly made over $1 billion profit alone, it puts that price tag into perspective.

Following the announcement of this acquisition, attention quickly focused on what it meant for the future of Bethesda games on rival systems. Namely, the PlayStation consoles. Typically, when a studio is acquired and brought under Xbox, PlayStation, or Nintendo’s umbrella of first party studios, the release of their games on other systems ceases. It’s a little more complicated with the acquisition of Bethesda since an acquisition of this magnitude is simply unprecedented in the industry.

Incidentally, Bethesda currently has two deals with PlayStation to release upcoming games Deathloop and Ghostwire: Tokyo as timed exclusives on the upcoming PlayStation 5. This sort of deal sees the game release on PlayStation’s console first and come to Xbox and/or other systems after a set amount of time. This typically ranges from a few months up to a whole year. In this case, Microsoft has said they will honour these agreements already in place.

The million dollar question pertains to whether the juggernaut upcoming Bethesda games (The Elder Scrolls 6, Starfield, Fallout 5 and more) will be exclusive to the Xbox ecosystem or also released on the PlayStation 5. Pointedly, I say Xbox ecosystem instead of Xbox console - that’s because Xbox frankly doesn’t care where you play their games. On one of their consoles, on your PC, on your phone, it simply does not matter to them.

For the last few years, Microsoft has been pursuing a strategy that transcends the traditional console wars. Historically, we’ve seen gaming console manufacturers be crowned winners and losers by the amount of hardware they sell. Frankly, this is an archaic measurement of success. For years now, Microsoft has been pushing to expand the Xbox ecosystem onto many devices. They recently launched their cloud gaming service with Game Pass onto Android devices, with iOS expected to follow.

We see console hardware sales usually stagnate when they get to the 100-150 million mark. Simply, they hit a ceiling. There’s only so many home console gamers out there. Conversely, there’s reportedly up to three billion gamers across other various devices, such as mobile phones. This is Microsoft’s end game - to attract as many of those three billion gamers into the Xbox ecosystem through cloud streaming and Xbox Game Pass.

Think about the film or music industry for a moment. In those industries, and in gaming, original content is king. Netflix does not put their original content on Amazon Prime Video and vice versa. Quality original content is what lures people into subscribing and sticking around. Following this acquisition, Microsoft now has 23 first party studios. Comparatively, Sony’s PlayStation has 13. The future success of the Xbox brand and it potentially overtaking Sony’s more historical PlayStation brand, rests in how much quality original content Microsoft can make exclusive to the Xbox ecosystem.

In terms of raw console sales, PlayStation has Xbox beat and by quite some measure. So, what do you do when you don’t like how the table is set? You turn over the table. Microsoft recently announced Xbox Game Pass had reached 15 million subscribers, up from 10 million under six months ago. This represents a 50% growth in the service in under half a year. Comparatively, the last official numbers we got for Sony’s PlayStation Now service had it at the 2 million subscribers mark.

It’s clear where Xbox sees their future. Buy their games outright or play them through Game Pass on console, PC, and mobile, it doesn’t matter. What matters is you’re in their ecosystem. If they do indeed make Bethesda titles only available on Xbox/PC/Game Pass and cut off PlayStation, anyone that wants to play Bethesda’s famous games going forward has to become a part of the Xbox ecosystem. The potential of Bethesda’s huge IP to lure in millions of new gamers into the Xbox ecosystem is simply far more appealing than short-term dollar sales by selling the games on PlayStation systems.